#ManifoldMarkets

Who will win the Premier League 2023-2024? Place your Manifold Market bets here!

https://manifold.markets/ErwinRossen/who-will-win-the-premier-league-202

#PremierLeague #ManifoldMarkets

I have created my first prediction market on #ManifoldMarkets about the share of #solar in Dutch electricity production in 2030. Go ahead and have a bet if you have an opinion on it!

https://manifold.markets/ErwinRossen/will-the-share-of-electricity-produ?r=RXJ3aW5Sb3NzZW4

Anybody playing on a #PredictionMarket or specifically #ManifoldMarkets here? I just created a question about our german gas storage levels: https://manifold.markets/copacetic/will-germanys-gas-storage-in-2023-d?referrer=copacetic

(I also created a similar question on #Metaculus but publication requires a review there and will take a while)

Joke #PredictionMarkets are fun. Below you can bet on whether #Trump will be indicted on #January6th

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-trump-getting-indict

#ManifoldMarkets

I want to learn #Rust

Would anyone be interested in a #Rust binding to #ManifoldMarkets and related services?

I've been fascinated with the idea of prediction markets lately, and with Manifold Markets in particular. In a nutshell, it's a place where you can ask any question and people can bet their play-money on the outcomes. You don't earn anything with it but it's fun and having a lot of Manifold $ might give you some status as a good forecaster.

One of the things I like about Manifold is that the range of topics is wide, though admittedly centered around EA at the moment. I also really like the way it tries to encourage asking long-term questions by giving you a part of your bets back as loans.

I thought it'd be fun to create some PL and logic questions, so far added these:
- What will be the most popular non JavaScript-like language on Github in 2023? (https://manifold.markets/JesperCockx/what-will-be-the-most-popular-non-j)
- Will an inconsistency in the Calculus of Inductive Constructions be found before 2050? (https://manifold.markets/JesperCockx/will-an-inconsistency-in-the-calcul)

If you add any PL questions of your own, let me know so I can make a bet!

#PredictionMarket #ManifoldMarkets #github #ProgrammingLanguages #CIC

Lastly, a market about #ads. This one resolves to yes if #Tumblr injects ads into their #ActivityPub exposed feeds

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-tumblr-implementing

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Fediverse #Predictions #advertising

We also have markets for whether you can follow a #Tumblr account from an external #ActivityPub account. I picked #Mastodon for convenience. This seems a little less likely to me, as it takes you away from their ads.

Again, 2023 and 2025

2023: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from

2025: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from-8c2db6d325e1

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Predictions #Fediverse

First up, will they allow you to follow an external #ActivityPub account from #Tumblr? This seems most likely to me, of these. I have created two markets, one for EoY 2023, one for EoY 2025

2023: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter

2025: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter-6da47e524d0f

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Fediverse #Predictions

Alright everybody, #Tumblr has indicated that they want to support #ActivityPub, but I think we are all a bit skeptical about how that might look. This thread is meant to collect #PredictionMarkets about how aspects of this might work out. They are all hosted on #ManifoldMarkets, so you don't need to worry about staking real money if you don't want to

Note that it will probably take a few days for these to settle, depending on activity

Well this makes me feel great about #ManifoldMarkets

Neat article comparing the accuracy of different #forecasting entities on the #midterms

https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison

Summary:
- #Metaculus is closest
- 538 is just behind them
- #ManifoldMarkets is a fair margin below that
- everyone else is significantly worse

Note: one election cycle is a really small sample and you shouldn't draw huge conclusions without more such cycles

It's time for a re-#introduction!

I'm a #MastersStudent in #ComputerScience. In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as
- a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
- a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
- a transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's OverpassQL
- bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #cpython, and more

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Bi, #transfem, and happily dating my enby sweetheart

Turns out that #ManifoldMarkets is well calibrated, if you restrict yourself to markets with at least 5 trades.

The attached image shows dots for each 10% bucket. If the dot is on the green line, that means that bucket matched expectation, since those events happened with their expected probability.

The biggest errors are towards the extremes, which makes sense. As things stand now, it is often difficult to get the true probability of things in the 0-5%/95-100% buckets

These are the 6 races #ManifoldMarkets has closest to 50/50:

- AZ Senate (47% R, 53% D): https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-blake-masters-win-the-arizona

- KS Governor (47% D, 53% R): https://manifold.markets/SG/will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-kansas

- WI Governor (47% D, 53% R): https://manifold.markets/SG/will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-wiscon

- PA Senate (moving a lot, but around 58% R): https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-dr-oz-be-elected-to-the-us-sen

- GA Senate (35-45% D, 55-65% R): https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-3d2432ba6d79

- NH Senate (70% D, 30% R): https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-23194a72f1b7

Follow the midterms on #ManifoldMarkets

https://manifold.markets/midterms

@lachlan
#ManifoldMarkets has odds on this. Currently ~20% that Twitter basically goes under faster than Tumblr did

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-twitter-beat-tumblr-at-97-deva

This is one of the more useful aspects of #ManifoldMarkets: it gives people an incentive to provide actual feedback. Some of these name suggestions are damn good

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/what-should-i-rename-my-market-mana

It's time for a re-#introduction!

I'm a #MastersStudent in #ComputerScience. In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as
- a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
- a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
- a transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's OverpassQL
- bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #cpython, and more

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Bi, #transfem, and happily dating my enby sweetheart

is #ManifoldMarkets ok

@ben
This is one of my more popular markets. In the description it has some others embedded for different timeframes/triggers

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a-bd5ee56971ea

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets

Currently talking with the folks at #ManifoldMarkets about bridging their platform to Mastodon. If it works, this would enable you to directly interact with the comments in their markets. It would, unfortunately, not enable a fediverse account to trade on Mastodon, but it should work for follows, likes, shares, and replies.

Below is a market for how likely this is to actually happen:
https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-i-make-a-bridge-between-manifo

#PredictionMarkets #Fediverse #ActivityPub #Bridge

I am now the subject of a #conspiracytheory lol

https://manifold.markets/Yev/does-livinthelookingglass-run-v

This made my day. Especially since that bot is great at its job

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets