A friendly reminder.
#Vaccination reduces mortality risk, but *it does not eliminate it*, and for some outcomes, does not change the hazard ratio.
Al-Aly et al, "Acute and postacute sequelae associated with #SARSCoV2 reinfection", Nov/22
More data to back up my hypothesis that *all* infected are affected/damaged maybe permanently.
LC as a term maybe ought to be retired. It's not something that happens to an unfortunate few.
What if we all got a brain/organ eating virus? There's no what-ifs any more except for the rare #Novid
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> SARS-CoV-2...has not mutated into just a trivial cold. As well as causing symptoms in the initial phase – which can be especially serious for people who are vulnerable – the virus can lead to chronic illness in people of any age and health status due to its ability to affect blood vessels, the heart, lungs, brain and immune system.
> COVID and its ongoing effects are contributing to substantial disability in society. Loss of productivity due to long COVID is affecting workforce and economies.
> COVID is not endemic, but is an epidemic virus like influenza or measles, so we can expect waves to keep coming. With this in mind, it’s definitely worth protecting yourself – particularly when cases are rising.
> We know SARS-CoV-2 transmits through the air we breathe. We also know a lot of the transmission risk is from people without symptoms, so you can’t tell who around you is infectious. This provides a strong rationale for universal masking during periods of high transmission.
> Masks do work. A Cochrane review suggesting they don’t was flawed and subject to an apology.
> The most protective kind of mask is a respirator or N95, but any mask protects more than no mask.
> A multi-layered strategy of vaccines, masks, safe indoor air, testing and treatment will help us navigate this COVID wave.
“COVID-19 infection decreased testosterone levels and increased E2 levels, which leading to disorders in male and female reproductivity.”
> Comparison of testosterone, FSH, LH and E2 hormone levels in infertility suspected males with COVID-19 infection https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10615395/
Wait until the virus enters your body to fight it :GeordiSaysNo:
Keep the virus from entering your body :GeordiSaysYes:
#WearARespirator :aura: :vflex: :xplore1900: :n95:
"well-fitting mask" :drake_dislike:
"tight-fitting mask" :drake_like:
"respirator" :chef_kiss: :geordi_like: :merylstreepyes: :thinkaboutit: :successkid: :take_my_money: :dance_cool_doge:
Period: Nov 4-17
Average Infection rate:
ON: 1 in 17
CA: 1 in 23
> Robust available data support the use of face masks in community settings to reduce transmission of #SARSCoV2
and should inform future responses to epidemics and pandemics caused by respiratory viruses.
I just want to point out that a lot of the fancy stuff the rich are using are still less effective than a respirator. Yes they have stacked the odds in their favor, but even a 2% error in testing (PCR) is massive when so many people are infected.
Here's an expose (w/receipts) of the fall of WHN as a reliable/trustworthy entity
By the excellent @crowgirl
Hero worship will get us killed.
Rationalizing #COVID murder
I have been wondering how formerly caring folks have just given up taking any precautions and seem to be blissfully infecting others, which they know will lead to deaths at the end of some transmission chains, and disability/organ damage in others.
Two recent threads/articles really explained it for me:
To which I'll add my own visual. Imagine the newly unmasked have machine guns that they really want to shoot off; and in the past they didn't because it might kill someone. Now they are gleefully firing into a crowd of babies, grandmas/grandpas, retail workers, etc. Who's to say which bullet will actually kill someone?
And if they refrain from enjoying themselves, some MAGA person will shoot off their guns anyway, so they aren't responsible .. Inevitable. Resistance is futile.
Well that didn't take long. Returned home from a long trip to a locale I was expecting to get challenged on our #respirator use (and wasn't!?!).
Noticed masking is down to near zero in Downtown Toronto.
Wearing my Envomask N99 on walking home from local indoor shopping, my "nice" teacher neighbour "helpfully" calls from across the street...
N: "Did you get COVID again?"
E: "No. Because we wear these everywhere"
N: "Well you don't need to because..." (makes a distance between us motion)
E: "There are well documented cases of outdoor nearby transmission from people passing by, and many people walk by us."
N: Repeats that I don't need it indicating the distance.
E: "I am very well informed, thank you. When you have #LongCovid come talk to me"
He asks about getting #LongCovid & I explain what happened.
N: "Oh, my wife has a bit of that too"
E: "That's why I mask everywhere - I cannot afford another infection".
N: "Its just so much" (indicating masks on the face) - "it brings back such bad memories"
In other words, his emotional trigger is justification (from his perspective) for challenging my wearing a respirator & attempting to socially normalize not wearing it.
Without regard to the risk.
Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman, who identified a chemical tweak to messenger RNA that laid the foundation for vaccines against #Covid19, were awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology/ Medicine.
As this photo shows, both scientists are wearing masks and NOT relying on the "vax and relax".
COVID Vaccines (gen 1), and moving forward
* No sterilizing vaccine (gen 1)
Read this whole thread: https://mastodon.social/@jmcrookston/111128536513191405
If you read one source paper referenced there, read this: https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1009509
It was always a lie. Vax or infection immunity fades fast.
'Sterilizing' immunity only found for pathogens that spread systemically via blood/lymph nodes (think rash -- measles, chickenpox, smallpox, etc)
* Asymptomatic transmission still occurs!
Even with Measles/Chickenpox etc, there's still transmission occurring with vaccination, we already know all too well, it happens with #COVID
* XBB 1.5 based shots have limited potential to protect
Immunity (short-term) is provided by antibodies, which the new shots produce way fewer of than compared to OG strain.
* Single infection likely causes immune damage/organ damage LC or not
* NPIs like respirators, distancing, air cleaning are essential
High-performance respirators ranked & sorted by size
More effective rapid test swab procedure
Low-risk, OTC meds to reduce symptoms & Long Covid risk
Here's an excellent blog post by Mike Hicks
Great analysis over the various factions that have formed over the response to #Covid
I can proudly say I'm #TeamGreen
I haven't kept a super close eye on these Auras with the upgraded straps, but this is as cheap as I've seen: https://www.kmstools.com/3m-n95-2-strap-disposable%20dust-mask.html
$1.79/ea at KMSTools online or in-store :flag_BC: / :flag_AB:
COVID vaccine effectiveness.
tl;dr: VE likely to be near zero, but important troubling questions are raised by this data
Here's a preprint looking at the antibodies generated for newer strains.
The count of antibodies for the OG strain is ~20x that of the newer strains, and even though XBB.1.5 was targeted. Also it's antibody count is roughly similar with BA.2.86.
Since VE against infection is related to the number of antibodies, it's not likely to protect much.
To me the bigger issue is why? A couple of reasons come to mind:
- Imprinting -- we are now producing antibodies to the OG strain no matter what is presented as long as it's related.
- Inherent immune evasiveness of the new strains -- Are these strains inherently more evasive, implying at least this gen of shots will longer protect
It could also be a combination of these.
It implies we really need to focus on cutting down transmission as much as possible (#ZeroCovid) using respirators/air-cleaning/distancing, in addition to focusing on anti-virals to help the already infected.
Further thoughts on this:
Even though XBB1.5 is targeted the ancestral antibody count is nearly 20x that of the current strains.
The number of antibodies is remarkably consistent for the current strains regardless of lineage, implying that strain-matching has almost no impact any longer.
Given the lack of any masking and/or other protective measures like limiting unnecessary gatherings, air filtering, etc. IMHO the viral dose on average is much higher, and might completely obliterate any protection, making it undetectable (or negative VE if it leads to riskier behavior)
It's not reassuring actually.
The antibody count is remarkably lower than with the ancestral strain, indicating to me that the protection will be minimal at best.
Either our prior immune response is priming it for a suboptimal set of antibodies or the new variants are just more immune evasive
"COVID is back" only in the sense that media+govts are talking about it again. It never went away.
Just because you hadn't been hearing the word doesn't mean it wasn't being spoken about, knowingly or otherwise.
While the aforementioned entities don't suffer symptoms or illnesses that necessitate explanation, they do discuss delays, worker shortages, supply chain disruption, etc.
On the other hand, an individual must use euphemisms like allergies, summer cold, under the weather, out sick, fatigue, brain fog, diabetes, autoimmune disease, cancer, natural causes, etc, to gloss over new or ongoing health issues.
Kids respirators update:
The Kimberly-Clark duckbill N95 in small (54066) seems to fit *excellent* on my 3 and 5yos; 1yo's head is almost as big as 3, so expect it'll fit well, too
These are the first ones that seem to fit well enough to bother with a DIY qualitative fit test -- hoping to do one soon 🤞
Downside is the straps. They're good on first wear, but stretch enough that I assume fit will be worse, hence. There might be space on the edges of the 'bill' to staple on some new ones, though; might test a few hacks
Cost <$100CAD for a 50pk
There's one layer of swiss cheese that I would never omit:
These are the only layer that can prevent close-proximity transmission.
As long as you're wearing one that you know seals to your face and isn't soaked or super old, it's going to protect you from all the invisible ways #TrojanAir can get into your nose and mouth.
And even if you haven't proven that it seals and it's damp or you've worn it a bunch of times before, it's still going to provide more protection than any other layer(s).
Please, please don't think you can compensate for being unmasked by utilizing combinations of other layers.
All the other layers are designed to make a respirator more effective or provide backup in the event a respirator lets a bit of something through. Even vaccines were trialled in the context of universal masking; their original efficacy numbers are a product of that environment.
If you can't get your hands on any respirators, reach out and I'll connect you to someone in your region who can help. If I have to ship you some myself, I will.
Wastewater numbers just aren't reliable enough. Intra-wave, perhaps; certainly not inter-wave.
If different variants can have different exhaled viral load, it's reasonable to assume the same of excretions.
And really, any unique characteristic that can be used against the virus is something that's going to be selected out as long as we keep giving it trillions of opportunities to mutate.
I think we'd best have a conversation about mask efficacy in the context of time-to-infection, viral load and other highly-speculative estimations that have been proffered over the course of the pandemic thus far.
You cannot build a rock-solid scientific model on top of such things.
I see the medium to long term outcomes splitting into three groups (survivors -- people who died early excepted)
1. Early #COVIDCareless This group is testing how many infections a body can take before breaking down. The number will vary, and it won't be uniform, but I expect 2024-25 will see this group crossing double digit infections, and showing significant death.
1a. Late #COVIDCareless This group abandoned precautions sometime this year or last .. see #1 with a delay of 2-3 years.
2. Infected 1x (or low #s) + #CovidCareful : Still going to suffer long-term immune deficiencies, until underlying persistence is tackled. 10yrs? Some of this group might stumble on to a prophylactic that works.
3. Uninfected + #CovidCareful Very small numbers here, should see lifespans pre-2019 or longer as they are now also not getting sick from flus etc.
Unfortunately group 1/1a are the vast majority of the population.
There's a really good sale on that particular Inkbird right now, too
With widespread seeding across effectively the entire population of the planet including immunocompromised (current & future) patients, we are just guaranteeing that we'll have new dangerous variants.
There's no way to chase these variants without #ZeroCovid .
When will we wake up?
>SARS-CoV-2 is a protean virus. It seems designed to reinfect a previously infected host, changing its outer coat as well as some of its properties.
>We all remember Omicron and how it swept the world that had already experienced several waves of Covid cases. There were so many changes in the outer spike protein of Omicron that previous infections did little to protect from new infections. How much previous infection protects from disease still remains in question.
>BA.2… contained 54 amino acid mutations from the original Wuhan virus. The cause for concern with BA.2.86 is that it contains 41 amino acid mutations on top of the BA.2 mutations, totaling 95 mutations from the Wuhan virus.
>BA.2.86 is likely a common descendant of one of the original Omicron variants, BA.2, and a more recent variant, XBB. In the spike protein of BA.2.86, we see 60 amino acid mutations, including substitutions and deletions. For context, the Alpha variant, which fueled the second-largest surge of cases in the United States behind the initial Omicron surge, contained just ten spike amino acid mutations. Dr. Eric Topol describes BA.2.86 as "Omicron Squared."
>…the updated Covid vaccine set to be released this fall is designed to protect against the XBB.1.5 variant, but not BA.2.86. The hope is that the vaccine will protect against BA.2.86 should it widely circulate, but it would be unsurprising if the variant evaded booster protection, given the degree to which BA.2.86 is mutated in the spike is extreme.
@eyesquash it's true that #BaggyBlues aren't great at protecting against airborne pathogens / bioaerosols, either for the wearer or those around them, though if everyone was wearing them in shared air, levels of transmission would still be much lower.
Even imperfect, incomplete masking with non-respirators by a majority of the population contributed to the eradication of a particular strain of influenza in 2020-21. By now, however, SARS-CoV-2 has mutated to be far more contagious than any strain of flu; it's probably neck and neck with measles -- the most transmissible pathogen we know -- at the very least.
Respirators, otoh, are incredibly effective at protecting the wearer, though they are *even better* at protecting others.
That's why hospital infection prevention and control policy specifies N95s, elastomerics, or PAPRs in the presence of airborne pathogens -- and why it's unconscionable that they've continued to stick their collective heads in the sand, ignore science and the relevant in-field experts, and deny that #CovidIsAirborne.
It's unfortunate that so many have fallen victim to the deliberate mis/disinfo that masks don't work, especially given that so many of us have gone 3+ years without contracting #SARSCoV2 -- or any other respiratory infection, for that matter.
#Covid worst case scenarios
Are we as a group (#COVIDCareful) soft-pedaling how bad things could get? Certainly I don't see any experts putting their necks out there.
Recently a preprint came out that basically shows everyone infected has chronic T-cell activation years after the infection with very little attenuation with time past the acute phase. There's little difference between those with LongCovid and 'recovered'
Vaccination provides little to no help in this case.
If this is caused by persistence (likely IMHO), unless cleared it could continue forever, basically rendering *the vast majority of the population* immune-compromised.
How many years do we have before incidental infections kill the infected?
All indications are that repeated reinfections makes everything worse.
Do we even have 10yrs left??
Because NAAT offers a 95 to 99% accurate result (as long as the sample was collected properly), I feel confident that this negative result is a true negative.
No symptom development. Rigorous #N95 use, plus nasal spray & mouthwash, works ✅
I think this is off the mark.
Antibodies fade, and not all people seroconvert in the first place.
What this means IMHO is that nearly 80% have had a recent COVID infection for sure, and it might actually be much higher than that accounting for non seroconversion.
IMHO, the Novid prevalance is in the single digits or less .. just look at the prevalence of masking; there's no way those non-maskers haven't yet contracted COVID.
By no means is this a reason to give up.
This is some 👌 science.
Despite being vocal about how important it is to advocate for yourself (in the form of asking people to wear a #mask or #respirator in your personal space), actually doing so in real time can be intimidating. Especially when they’re both a stranger and a cisgender man
Luckily, there are still people who seem not to give a fuck and will do as you ask.
Dispatch from #Brooklyn #NYC — At a Rite Aid waiting for a vaccine. Overhearing people talking about how “no allergy medicine works for them any more.” No #masks in sight. Nobody in the pharmacy is masked—and every single one of them is coughing, touching their faces, and wiping their noses with their bare hands. I guess we’ve learned absolutely nothing 🙃
From a risk perspective, wearing a #respirator is like seat belts & air bags in a car.
Seat belts mitigate a low probability high impact risk - car crash.
Except #SARS2 transmission is way more probable than a car crash
You wear a seat belt right?
Then #WearARespirator too.
We don't need to worry about a #BSL3 lab leak releasing a deadly super pathogen
In your grocery store. In your office. When you take the bus
Every infection is a new opportunity for #SARS2 to mutate & grow stronger
Potential recombination between SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV: calls for the development of Pan-CoV vaccines
Why #WearAMask outside? So many reasons, but here are my top three: it keeps you warm when there’s a windchill, you don’t have to stop to put it on when you want to go inside, and last but not least…it keeps your mind at ease when people are hacking up a lung next to you 😎 #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #WearARespirator #MaskUp #UpgradeYourMask @novid
Important question for all who #WearARespirator!
My partner is tired of wearing #3mAura bc they make her feel claustrophobic (sensory) & don’t always seal properly around the nose.
We’re looking for a new kind of #respirator for her that has a pretty universal fit (which I’ve been told is true of Auras; I love them for me).
Please take a moment, & review this table from @erictopol
He presents a summary of studies to date quantifying the objective increase in risk for heart disease & stroke post #COVID19 infection.
Not one study shows #SARS2 infection is good for you.
Do you feel lucky? No? Then #WearARespirator
I hope there are better vaccines, but realistically I think that's years out, and looking at HIV/Flu, I'm not hopeful.
I'm more hopeful about engineering interventions to prevent #Airborne spread. Definitely achievable now, and with some research could be very cheap. In the meantime, #WearARespirator .. they are amazingly effective. Too bad, we have normalized death instead.
Also moderately hopeful for antivirals, but we need to be spending money now on viral load tests, etc.
OMG .. yet another pandemic minimizing article from the #nytimes
Every time I see something like this it smacks of eugenics .. if only those older people would get out of the way, we could have #Normal again.
Except it's all wrong, everyone is still in a pandemic. 20yr olds aren't supposed to have heart attacks/strokes. Toddlers aren't supposed to get diabetes or MIS-C.
As the pandemic reporting ebbs.. fixed the headline.
NPR has been horrific throughout this pandemic (still ongoing)
Dispatch from #Brooklyn #NYC — Yesterday I went to the Brooklyn Museum to see their excellent #VirgilAbloh exhibit before it closes next weekend. Little mask wearing; but the masks I did see were, by and large, #KN95 and even some #N95 respirators!