Scientists warn of catastrophic climate tipping points as #COP28 continues:
Copernicus Climate Change Service confirming that 2023 will be the hottest year on record
Great overview of the “discourses of delay” used to avoid climate action #ClimateChange #ClimateAction https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-discourses-of-delay-are-used-to-slow-climate-action/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Many of the gravest threats to humanity are drawing closer, as carbon pollution heats the planet to ever more dangerous levels, scientists have warned.
Five important natural thresholds already risk being crossed, according to the Global Tipping Points report.
Earth on verge of five catastrophic climate tipping points, scientists warn
Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass displacement and financial ruin as planet warms
The report: https://global-tipping-points.org
To follow up on Transport Evolved's video, a new report from the National Automobile Dealer Association (NADA) says that in the past 11 months of 2023, there were over 1 million EVs sold in the US. That's an increase of 50.7% year-over-year. Amazing!
EV demand is strong. People want EVs. We just need EVs that are affordable for the masses, not just for those who can afford an EV priced at $40K or more.
Transport Evolved (@show) has a new video out going over whether EV sales are dropping.
The TL;DW: No, EV sales are not dropping but there are certainly headwinds that are impacting people's ability to buy an EV. Demand remain strong nonetheless.
Nikki (@Aminorjourney) and the TE team did a great job. Worth watching.
Earth endures hottest autumn on record, igniting climate change urgency https://noah-news.com/gb/en/environment/2023/12/06/earth-endures-hottest-autumn-on-record-igniting-climate-change-urgency #climatechange #globalwarming #COP28
Climate alarm bells ring as Earth records hottest decade https://noah-news.com/gb/en/environment/2023/12/06/climate-alarm-bells-ring-as-earth-records-hottest-decade #climatechange #globalwarming #WMOreport
Imminent Climate Tipping Points Threaten Humanity's Future
Scientists have issued a grave warning about the imminent dangers posed by the Earth's tipping points. The Global Tipping Points report identifies five critical thresholds that are at risk of being crossed, with three more projected to be reached in the 2030s if global temperatures rise by 1.5C.
Earth on verge of five catastrophic climate tipping points, scientists warn
Scientists Combine Climate Models For More Accurate Projections
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-scientists-combine-climate-accurate.html <-- shared technical article
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01009-8 <-- shared paper
This new method provides a framework for how to best understand a collection of climate models. The model weights included in this research informed the Fifth National Climate Assessment, a report released on Nov. 14 that gauges the impacts of climate change in the United States. This project also supports the Earth System Grid Federation, an international collaboration led in the U.S. by DOE that manages and provides access to climate models and observed data…”
#GIS #spatial #mapping #climatechange #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #model #modeling #numericmodeling #global #statistics #weighting #bayesian #modelaverging #climatesensivity #climatemodels #projection #ECS #earthsystem #ORNL
#NDP tables motion to create a climate-fighting youth corps
Oil and activism collide at climate summit as COP28 faces scrutiny https://noah-news.com/gb/en/environment/2023/12/06/oil-and-activism-collide-at-climate-summit-as-cop-faces-scrutiny #COP28 #ClimateChange #FossilFuelLobby
Well the picture indeed paints a thousand words.
I was going to write a detailed summary of what has gone on at this pivotal meeting (what the heck is COP28?)…..but honestly, you are unlikely to read through it all and the above picture summarizes it pretty much.
If you do want to dive in…I can recommend reading this article (read time about 8 mins): The COP28 climate conference has an F-word problem
You know the situation….or perhaps you don’t, because mainstream media has had a pretty tepid coverage of COP28. Despite a few attempts to green-spin the world’s governmental responses, they are lacklustre, too late and too little.
For example, it has been reported that there are 2,456 fossil fuel representatives and lobbyists at this year’s COP. Last year there were 636.
Here is a flowchart on the entire situation….what you believe and where you are at…..that you can explore at your leisure:
I WANT A BETTER CATASTROPHE
I continue to read up on the science, expert opinion, and more outlier opinions on where we are all headed and although I admit my readings may be affected by some confirmation bias, things are decidedly bleak.
OK. I think that despite the mainstream narrative that we are still working towards 2050 to attain Net Zero and economic reform and technology is quickly adapting and all that….best case scenario we have 10 to 15 years left before the world as we know it has collapsed.
Worse case scenario*, 5 years.
And if we were to attain Net Zero today (that is, the amount of greenhouse emissions from human activity are exactly equal to the amount we are able to ‘absorb’… and which we have less than zero chance of doing)…..things are still going to get very bad.
I just don’t know how to sell it any sweeter than that. And I am well aware that it makes me sound like some deep-state, fringe-dwelling anti-vax, do-your-own-research, doom-spreading, glass-half-empty, conspiracy dwelling, looney.
But here I am.
And here we are….
Importantly, this does not mean we should all throw our arms up in the air….eat drink and be merry for tomorrow we apocalypse….no this means we must each dig deep and find our best response to our shared predicament. For each of us that will look different.
Even though there will probably be a collapse, there will definitely be a future. What we want that future to look like is what really matters.
Doing nothing is not an option. Dig deep and respond in small steps.
*Worst-case scenario….. several tipping points will escalate climate change exponentially. These include the collapse of big ice sheets in Greenland and the West Antarctic, the widespread thawing of permafrost, the death of coral reefs in warm waters, and the collapse of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic…..and most importantly our failure to make radical and deep changes to business as usual.
Restrictions on speech and protest in the United Arab Emirates are complicating U.N. approval of an Amnesty event at COP28 demanding the release of Emirati political prisoners, the group's secretary-general said. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/12/06/world/politics/uae-cop28-activism-amnesty/?utm_content=buffer57563&utm_medium=social&utm_source=mastodon&utm_campaign=bffmstdn #worldnews #politics #dubai #climatechange #censorship #uae #cop28
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn | Earth on verge of five catastrophic climate tipping points, scientists warn |
[...] "“Risks associated with large-scale singular events or tipping points, such as ice-sheet instability or ecosystem loss from tropical forests, transition to high risk between 1.5C to 2.5C and to very high risk between 2.5C to 4C.”" | #Earth #COP28 #environment #climate #ClimateChange
News #öresund Sverige: Bygg- och fastighetsbranschen ville själv höja ambitionen och startade LFM30 https://www.newsoresund.se/bygg-och-fastighetsbranschen-ville-sjalv-hoja-ambitionen-och-startade-lfm30/
The autumn 2023 average temperature for the Arctic land area (land north of 60°N) was the highest since 1950 (and almost certainly a very long time before that). The trend since the early 1990s an astonishing 1.6F (0.9C) per decade.This follows the warmest summer on record. For the combined land and sea north of 60°N this was the third warmest autumn. Data from ERA5 courtesy of ECMWF/Copernicus.
@Climatologist49 @Ruth_Mottram @ZLabe
The Salton Sea has even more lithium than previously thought, new report finds
#AirNewZealand says using the #ALIA electric cargo plane to deliver parcels will help plot route towards #zeroemissions passenger flights in a ‘new age of propulsion’
Grassfire northwest of Airdrie extinguished, ‘no significant losses’: officials | Global Calgary
Stop Climate Chaos Scotland is a diverse coalition of over 60 civil society organisations in Scotland campaigning together on #climateChange.
Join us at the #ScottishParliament in #Edinburgh on 9th December at 12.30 PM to send a strong message to decision makers that we are united for action, to tackle the #climate & nature crises, secure sustainable jobs, a fairer, greener, healthier society for everyone in #Scotland, & justice for those impacted by the #climateCrisis. https://www.stopclimatechaos.scot/campaign/cop28-edinburgh/
Please, explain why any voter should be optimistic that Dems will wield their power, rather than "supporting" via lip service.
What is to impel #Democrats to STICK TO a halfway decent legislative agenda, rather than theatrically wringing their hands as more of our rights go poof and then slaveringly fundraising off the issue once it's gone? Y'know, like what happened with this very issue on Biden's watch?
Especially interested in what might force moral choices on matters that might cost their donors money, such as #WorkersRights, #protest #RightToProtest, and #ClimateCrisis #ClimateChange change related issues.
US oil production is at a record level, exerting some downward pressure on prices. The sincerity of pledges of action on #climatechange can reasonably be doubted. https://www.axios.com/2023/12/05/us-oil-production-record
Currently most people somewhat appreciate the goals, but want someone else to do the changes
Almost nobody says 'I'm fine with Rainforest destruction'
=nice far away problem, can be judged without personal effort
If anyone mentions maybe 95% of Rainforest destruction comes from demand for animal products most get super defensive
'bacon double cheeseburgers are a personal choice'
A fight over the future of fossil fuels has been thrust into the global spotlight at the COP28 climate summit.
CNBC reports: "Many gathering in Dubai believe the talks can only be considered a success if they result in a deal to “phase out” all fossil fuels."
Update to the 50-year seasonal temperature changes in and around #Alaska (ºF), now for 1974-2023, all from ERA5 courtesy of ECMWF/Copernicus. The incredible warming in the autumn across northern Alaska is driven by the loss of sea ice. The comparatively modest warming in summer in part reflects the unimportance of snow and ice in that one season. Spring slight cooling in the southeast Interior stands out. #akwx #Arctic #Climate #ClimateChange
U.S. climate report issues stark warnings for Midwest ag, health and infrastructure
We have a triple whammy here in Missouri:
* Weather extremes (heat and flooding) put crops at risk,
* Heat is causing worsening air quality and an increase in tick borne disease, and
* Lagging implementation of mitigation policies.
Read the full article on stlpr.org here: https://www.stlpr.org/health-science-environment/2023-12-05/new-us-climate-report-issues-midwest-warning
These Australian companies are highlighting ways to reduce methane emisssions at COP28
By Daniel Mercer
There's been a flurry of announcements and initiatives aimed at trying to dramatically reduce the amount of methane escaping into the atmosphere each year.
We’ve got to come to grips with the fact that #ClimateChange will almost assuredly result in societal collapses - at least regionally. While #nuclear power is mostly safe when managed by competent people with intact infrastructure like external power for cooling, what happens when that infrastructure collapses and those competent personnel are no longer being paid and need to hunt for food and water for their families?
Investing in any technology that can’t safely be turned off and walked away from in a crisis is investing in a catastrophe multiplier.
Appalled that fossil fuel company Ampol sponsors an award at my kids' regional highschool.
The tentacles of this insidious climate-wrecking beast stretch very far indeed.
And their corporate reputation-laundering is straight out of the tobacco industry playbook.
#FossilFuel #ClimateChange #Climate #Greenwashing
“Even as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) government works to burnish its image as a global #climate leader as host of #COP28, the United Nations climate conference underway in Dubai, the country’s vast #fossilfuel production and use spew toxic pollutants into the air and contribute to #climatechange.
#climatecrisis #climatejustice #humanrights #environment
The UAE has dangerously high air #pollution levels, creating major health risks for its citizens and residents…”
So, why do "progressive" governments end up approving new #oilandgas projects?
The current infuriating situation with #COP28 made the answer to this question more obvious.
Locally in Canada, even though the BC NDP government banned corporate donations in BC politics those "donations" moved to lobbying. Plus, leveraging "capital flight" (you might call it something else)
Watch/listen to this video clip via Dogwood BC
Basically, Big Oil has captured the institutions that we'd been hoping would try to fight #ClimateChange, and is now planning to set the planet on fire for its own profits.
The fossil fuel industry actively intends to kill us all, to line its own pockets. 😡
We'd like to better understand how people are using the open energy system data that we publish, both so we can serve your needs better, and so we can better convey the impacts of our work to potential foundation funders.
So if you use our data, please let us know how in this @github discussion!
Australian homes can be made climate-ready, reducing bills and emissions – a new report shows how https://theconversation.com/australian-homes-can-be-made-climate-ready-reducing-bills-and-emissions-a-new-report-shows-how-219113?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon #ClimateChange
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached record levels again in 2023, as experts warned that the projected rate of warming had not improved over the past two years.
Total CO2 emissions in 2023 would reach a record high of 40.9 gigatons.
“It is simply not enough to support clean energy. Policies are also needed to drive fossil fuels out of the energy system,” said Glen Peters, co-author of the report.
✂️ HBomberGuy Aquaman Comeback to Shapiro
The EU 'struck a deal which aims to make sustainable products the norm in the EU market. The new rules under the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR) will make products more repairable and durable by design and will restrict unsustainable practices, such as the destruction of unsold textile and footwear items.' https://www.beuc.eu/press-releases/new-eu-law-make-sustainable-products-norm-major-step-consumers #eu #law #politics #environment #climatechange #globalwarming #climatecrisis
“I wonder if it'll snow. Never seems to snow as much as it used to.” —line from a much-praised car ad, said from behind the wheel of a giant, old SUV carrying two people #ClimateChange
@kimlockhartga It’s a green scam pushed by the oil companies. If every person who is sitting there, rinsing off bottles & plastic containers to shove into a recycling bin, would spend that same amount of energy demanding that oil companies step up & do their fucking part it’d be 1000 times more effective & stop wasting our precious water resources. I try to give every plastic container two or three lives, same with paper. If the back is blank, use it for a note. Get creative! #ClimateChange
If Canada axed its carbon tax — and rebates — this is how different households would gain or lose:
High-income households would tend to be the biggest winners, lower-income households hurt the most
The climate change we caused is here for at least 50,000 years – and probably far longer https://theconversation.com/the-climate-change-we-caused-is-here-for-at-least-50-000-years-and-probably-far-longer-218641?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon #ClimateChange
“Every time we lose a species, we lose so much. We lose so many stories.”
From yesterday: Paula Levihn-Coon takes us down the long, sad road to extinction for animals like the San Marcos gambusia, which disappeared in the 80s but wasn't declared gone till this year. https://www.texasobserver.org/extinct-species-san-marcos-gambusia?utm_medium=social&utm_source=mastodon&utm_campaign=audience
The super-rich are killing us. Not just figuratively, but literally.
Climate change is overwhelmingly a problem of wealthy people. The wealthiest 1% of humanity produce over 1,000 times the emissions of the poorest 1%. In fact, these 77 million people are responsible for more climate-changing emissions than the poorest 66% (5 billion people) of humanity.
Since 1990, the personal emissions of the world’s wealthiest have exploded. They are now 77 times larger than the level that would be compatible with a 1.5°C warming limit.
Who are these super-polluters? The richest 1% are billionaires, millionaires and people earning over US$140,000 (£110,000). The threshold to join the rarefied club of the top 10% is US$41,000 (£32,000), including most of the middle class in wealthier countries.
But the super-rich are responsible for climate change well beyond consumption-based emissions. The super-rich, by and large, run major companies, direct investments and shape national and international laws. They have an oversized and controlling impact on our media and public opinion, including through advertising and ownership of media outlets. And they directly shape policy through lobbying and paid-for influence.
While their money and power make them overwhelmingly responsible for climate change, they are also insulated from the worst impacts. They are less affected by increased food prices and climate disasters, can afford insurance and to move from one place to another, and have greater resources to draw on in times of crisis.
It is the poorest – those least responsible for climate changing emissions – who suffer the most. They suffer higher losses, live in the most impacted regions, and have little to no access to savings, public support or welfare when crisis strikes. They are also least able to exercise their rights as they are the least powerful and less well represented politically.
It would take approximately 1,500 years for someone in the bottom 99% to produce as much carbon as a single billionaire does in a year.
The choice is very simple. Either we can have a livable biosphere or we can have billionaires. But we can't have both.
If we are to have any hope of preserving some form of modern human civilization beyond the next few decades, we *must* quickly and decisively reduce our fossil fuel emissions.
But that is not happening. And if we stay on our present course, it will never happen.
Sure, you can celebrate the rapid growth of renewable energy — but remember, what we are seeing now is "Green Growth," controlled by capitalists for their benefit and NOT for the good of our environment.
Check this out...
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that global energy consumption and associated CO2 emissions will increase through 2050. Global population growth, increased regional manufacturing, and higher living standards will push growth in energy consumption beyond advances in energy efficiency, according to EIA’s projections in its International Energy Outlook 2023.
EIA projects that global energy-related CO2 emissions will increase through 2050 in most of the cases modeled. Although EIA expects zero-carbon technology — renewables and nuclear — will meet the bulk of new energy demand through 2050, that growth is not sufficient to decrease global energy-related CO2 emissions in most cases under current laws and regulations, according to EIA’s projections.
Global energy consumption will increase through 2050, *outpacing efficiency gains* and driving continued emissions growth. That is not what we need.
FULL REPORT -- https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press542.php/
Shame, shame, shame on the organizers of #COP28...
At least 2,456 fossil fuel lobbyists have been granted access to the COP28 summit in Dubai, signalling an unprecedented presence at crucial climate talks from representatives of some of the world’s biggest polluters, according to a new analysis from the Kick Big Polluters Out (KBPO) coalition.
Alexia Leclercq of Start:Empowerment says, “Do you really think Shell or Chevron or ExxonMobil are sending lobbyists to passively observe these talks? To advance climate solutions for the benefit of communities whose air and water they pollute? To put people and the planet over profit and their greedy dollars? Big Polluters’ poisonous presence has bogged us down for years, keeping us from advancing the pathways needed to keep fossil fuels in the ground. They are the reason COP28 is clouded in a fog of climate denial, not climate reality.”
In a year when global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions shattered records, there has been an explosion of fossil fuel lobbyists heading to UN talks, with nearly four times more than were granted access last year.
“2023 was a year like no other. Record temperatures, record levels of emissions, and now we see a record attendance from Big Polluters at UN climate talks. The window to preserve a liveable planet is rapidly closing. At the same time, ever greater numbers of Big Polluters are allowed to roam around this summit,” said Muhammed Lamin Saidykhan of Climate Action Network International.
NEW: "What the Hell is Happening In the UK?"
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, vowing to end "the war on motorists," has launched a culture war against policies meant to protect people, the British economy and the planet. The Guardian's Peter Walker joins us to discuss.
Available wherever you get your podcasts.
The capitalist corporate media will be full of greenwashed good news about all the progress being made at COP28. Remember, they have a vested interest in supporting the status quo and continuing with Business As Usual for as long as possible.
So when you hear glowing reports about $427 million in pledges being made from various nations to the UN's "loss and damage fund," bear in mind that this amount is FAR from what is actually required.
Back in 2020, leading nations all agreed to jointly contribute $100 billion to assist in this effort. But that never happened.
According to the Adaptation Finance Gap Update report, these rich nations *should* now be spending at least $215 billion to $387 billion per year to help developing countries adapt to climate change.
$387 BILLION. Not $427 million.
If you do the math, that's about one-tenth of one percent of what is needed. Such generosity. 🙄
As for the United States? My country, the strongest and wealthiest in the world, has pledged $17.5 million, or about 0.002% of its defense budget. 😡
Oil & gas companies are reinvesting record profits from the fossil fuel price surge driven by the Ukraine war to intensify the hunt for new deposits despite repeated calls to phase out hydrocarbons to avoid a #ClimateCrisis.
IEA has forecasted that global upstream oil and gas investments will increase by about 11% to $528 billion in 2023.
Unless they commit to end expansion and put more capex into #renewables, these companies are not part of the solution.
This year's Global Carbon Budget is released today.
Find out where did the carbon go in 2022 and what are the projections until the end of 2023.
In a nutshell:
- Fossil CO2 emissions up by 1.1%, record high in 2023.
- Land use change emissions somewhat smaller then last year.
- Natural land and ocean CO2 sinks are maintained, despite negative impact of climate change on their strength.
- CO2 concentrations continue to increase.
The world is on track to have burned more coal, oil and gas in 2023 than it did in 2022, according to a report by the Global Carbon Project, pumping 1.1% more planet-heating carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at a time when emissions must plummet to stop extreme weather from growing more violent.
"Cycling is one of the most sustainable and healthy means of #transport that exists, yet cycling remains under-prioritized in the mobility mix in most places around the world and in the wider #climate agenda.
"The potential for #cycling (and #walking) to help address #ClimateChange is huge and within our grasp." —Jill Warren, chief executive of the European Cyclists’ Federation https://www.forbes.com/sites/tanyamohn/2023/12/04/the-climate-mouse-that-roars-cyclists-take-on-cop28/
#transportation #ClimateCrisis #ClimateHope #BikeTooter #bicycling #Bikes
Hot off the digital press:
September through November 2023 temperature departures from the 1991-2020 baseline around the Arctic. Northern Canada, northern Alaska and parts of western Siberia especially mild. Only Scandinavia and Fram Strait region significantly cooler than average. Overall this ranks as the third mildest autumn since 1950 for the #Arctic (poleward of 60N).
Data from ERA5 courtesy of ECMWF/Copernicus.
#ClimateChange #Climate H/T @Climatologist49
200 High-Flying Tycoons Emit Carbon of 40,000 People, News Investigation Finds
Groundwater Assessment Recharge Tool (GRAT) - A Tool To Save California’s Farming Future
https://stories.theplotline.org/ca-water/ <-- shared technical article
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029292 <-- shared paper
[part of groundwater sustainability planning (GSP)]
#managedaquiferrecharge #MAR #overextraction #groundwatermining
#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #groundwater #flooding #waterresources #watermanagement #CA #California #farming #agriculture #food #watersecurity #managedaquiferrecharge #MAR #overextraction #groundwatermining #GRAT #model #modeling #remotesensing #GroundwaterAssessmentRechargeTool #fields #water #hydrology #climate #climatechange #drought #droughts #climateextremes #extremeweather #hydrogeology #precipitation #infrastructure #economics #waterindustry #waterconservation #watercrisis #subsidence #groundwatersustainabilityplanning #GSP
Fossil CO₂ emissions hit record high yet again in 2023 https://theconversation.com/fossil-co-emissions-hit-record-high-yet-again-in-2023-216436?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon #ClimateChange
Good move: @CBSNews beefs up its #climate reporting. TV news needs to step up and cover arguably the most important story on the planet. “One of our strategic priorities previously discussed was to elevate our reporting on Climate across the group.” @TWholf @ChrisSpinder @TVNewsCheck https://tvnewscheck.com/journalism/article/cbs-news-expands-its-climate-reporting-team/ #climatechange
What happens after net zero? The impacts will play out for decades, with poorest countries still feeling the heat https://theconversation.com/what-happens-after-net-zero-the-impacts-will-play-out-for-decades-with-poorest-countries-still-feeling-the-heat-214361?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon #ClimateChange
Industrial carbon capture technologies are mostly a distraction from what we really need to do right now: phase out fossil fuels and deploy more effective climate solutions.
Don't Fall for Big Oil's Carbon Capture Deceptions - by @globalecoguy