#econmastodon
BoJ to scrap yield curve control later this year?
Is the Fed’s war on #inflation won?
Wednesday’s decision to hold interest rates steady does show the U.S. economy has been more resilient than expected – but an economist and Fed-watcher says it’s too early to celebrate
https://theconversation.com/the-federal-reserve-held-off-hiking-interest-rates-it-may-still-be-too-early-to-start-popping-the-corks-214022
#Economics #EconMastodon
"31% of all US government debt outstanding, or $7.6 trillion, will mature over the next year:" Apollo's Torsten Slok
US 5-YEAR REAL YIELDS CLIMB THROUGH 2.26% TO HIGHEST SINCE 2008
2% "is and will remain" the central bank's inflation target - Jerome Powell
'A US-Iran deal in the oil markets is already happening'
This suggests a need to recognize that it might well prove necessary to hit the brakes some more — and that it might well be a long time before it is prudent to cut rates.
US: What we know now is that inflation is still too high, labor markets are tighter than they have been since World War II, fiscal deficits are at near-record peacetime levels and stock prices are high.
"The market is coming more to the view that there is going to be long-term inflation pressures despite recent progress. Macro uncertainty is going to remain the story for the next few years, and that requires greater compensation to own long-dated bonds."
👀
"Inflation pressures coming back? Prices paid component within @philadelphiafed Manufacturing Index jumped in August to highest since June 2022."
So, this will have a neutral effect at best. Possibly negative
Oreshkin (Putin's key ally) blames the Russian Central Bank for the weaker Ruble. And not, you know, foreign policy. In the meantime, Ruble is weakening vs the Dollar.
#econmastodon
U.S. mortgage rates spike to highest since November 2022. Approach 22-year high
The US is now spending 44% of GDP per year, the same levels as World War 2.
In 2020, the US spent a record breaking 54% of GDP in one year.
This is what Fitch meant by “fiscal deterioration” when they downgraded the US credit rating.
Current government spending is unsustainable.
We are now spending a higher percentage of GDP than what was seen in 2008.
Via @LHSummers on X:
If you look at wage inflation, it was faster for the month than for the quarter, faster for the quarter than for the year and running for the quarter at about 4.9%. That's not consistent with 2% underlying inflation or close and unemployment ticked down.
Financial demands of supporting a family of 4 have surpassed what a
single salary can adequately provide
List of countries with AAA credit rating gets smaller after last week
Larry Summers: "I don't think we can yet be confident that we're not going to see a real acceleration of inflation at some point down the road. If you look at wage inflation, it was faster for the month than for the quarter, faster for the quarter than for the year." 👀
Big tech's profits are supposed to be recession-proof and they have more cash than God, but:
➡️ Buybacks by the big 5 (AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, ORCL & META) fell to $41 bn last quarter, from a peak of $70 bn in Q4 2021
➡️Their revenues have grown less than GDP for 5 straight quarters
The case for employee-owned companies by David Ellerman
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/column-the-case-for-employee-owned-companies
#politics #economics #econ #EconTwitter #EconMastodon #PoliticalEconomy #PoliticalPhilosophy #philosophy
'The Magnificent Seven boast an average P/E ratio of 43, almost double the average ratio of 25 for the rest of the field. The spread has rarely been this wide. What's more, the P/E ratio for the rest is among the highest readings on record.'
#Unemployment in the #eurozone has dipped to an all-time low in a sign that the region’s labour market remains in good shape despite weak economic growth. - Eurostat #econmastodon
Per the Financial Times:
“Travellers determined to take to the skies despite soaring ticket prices have pushed airline profits to fresh heights, as resilient consumer spending buoys the global economy.”
@MollyNYC @ned The whole defense of #capitalism supposedly based on #economics is based on obfuscating the actual legal structure of property rights under capitalism in favor of a metaphor about division of the product. In terms of that actual structure, the employees of a firm legally own 0% of the positive and negative product of the firm while the employer legally owns 100% of the whole product
@Andii The mistake people make is seeing #economics like physics when it is really more like geometry. It deals in ideal concepts. There are no ideal circles in the real world.that doesn't mean the concept isn't useful
Metaphors combined with math can make an analysis seem scientific while obfuscating. The usual presentation of marginal productivity theory, which itself is fine, obfuscates the legal structure of property rights in favor of a metaphor #EconTwitter #EconMastodon
Mohamed A. El-Erian: If #oil prices stay at these levels last seen in April or go higher, and if a decisive break does not materialize for service #inflation, expect more analytical work from economists and market analysts on the likely paths for US headline inflation after what is widely anticipated to be a comforting few months.
#economy #econmastodon #markets
👀
"Once again, the @federalreserve has underestimated inflation for basically the eighth quarter in a row.
They've been surprised on what's happened to inflation, and because they're surprised on what's happening with inflation and the strength of the economy, they're gonna be surprised by what they have to do to interest rates." - Lawrence Summers on the bird site
The ECB focusing on unit labour costs to set rate policy might prove horribly wrong due to the lagging nature:
"If you set policy relative to unit labour costs...there's a 90 per cent chance you're going to get it wrong" - Claus Vistesen
Bond yields going ballistic 👀
MAMU = Mother of All Melt Ups
Yellen just pushed possible US default from June 1st to June 5th. Negotions moving forward, but need time?
@Reuters on the latest #inflation data for #Japan.
This will pressure what, until now, has been a notably slow approach by the Bank of Japan to update its YCC (yield curve control) policy.
#economy #econmastodon #centralbanks
Gasparino: US treasury mulling de facto deposit insurance on ALL accounts, including those above $250K to stem regional banking crisis
EL PLAN REPowerEU BAJO EL PRISMA DE LOS FUNDAMENTOS DE LA POLÍTICA ENERGÉTICA EUROPEA
El papel de los servicios en el desarrollo económico y la relación centro-periferia
INVESTIGACIÓN Y TRANSFERENCIA DE LAS CIENCIAS SOCIALES FRENTE A UN MUNDO EN CRISIS
Is there an econ Mastodon the way there is / was an econ twitter?
And if so, where can I find it?
@economics @board @laborecon
Update trend of ADP nonfram payrolls. The latest trend shows the average decrease of 387.49 (till Feb. 2023) to 323.89 (till Mar. 2023) thousands of persons per month. The nonfarm payrolls trend has declined slowly. 1.1/
#mathgpt #mathai #ai #technology #nonfarm #AI財經 #AI經濟 #laborecon #economics #econmastodon #econdon #dataanalytics #data
The result of data which is till Feb. 2023: https://mastodon.social/@aphoebusli/110146907896918884
@fishecon @BibbleCo @chancerydaily Is there a generally-accepted hashtag for the community over here yet?
#EconMastodon seems sort of dead...
美國10年公債殖利率減去聯邦基金利率趨勢圖
1. 從2021年7月開始的趨勢
2. 近期趨勢
3. 近三期的趨勢方程式
#AI經濟 #AI財經 #經濟 #財經 #AI #mathgpt #mathai #technology #科技 #econmastodon #economics #federal
#AI經濟 @board 美國生產者物價指數(PPI)趨勢圖
從最優趨勢解的結果，整體解釋力達R2 = 0.997683，並產生18條趨勢。
#MathGPT for numerical modelling (lines combined method) 軟件確實幫助使用者得到精準估計，做到極小化誤差。
從2022年5月起，PPI開始走下降趨勢，並且平均每月下降2.23。
另外我們也能看到PPI起漲時間為2020年6月。這意味著美國在新冠疫情初期已經面臨生產者物價上漲的壓力，隨後2020年到2021年的冬季，以及2021年到2022年冬季都大幅推高PPI的位置。
如此疊加上去的生產者物價，想要回到疫情前也不是件簡單的事情。期間可能遭遇以YOY計的通膨，隨著時間而被認為是通縮發生。
#經濟 #財經 #科技 #AI財經 #生產 #PPI #AI科技 #economics #econmastodon #econdon #inflation #deflation
@board
美國核心PCE年增率經過迴歸後的殘差分布是柯西分布(平均數未定義)。
這一點都不是美好的事情。這和美國個人儲蓄率經過迴歸後的殘差分布一樣，只是參數不同。
#經濟 #財經 #通貨膨脹 #通膨 #通脹 #儲蓄 #economics #inflation #saving #Cauchy #econdon #econmastodon #econtwitter #AI經濟
@board@a.gup.pe @board@ovo.st
即使是美國核心PCE年增率趨勢，也同樣再逼近4.576%的安全界限。不過核心PCE年增率卻有著很大的不同。在下降階段形成兩個下降趨勢，並且可見物價黏性，導致年增率下降速度改變。
過程中同樣經歷美聯儲升息，但愈到近期猶疑不定和更多的猜測，經濟事件如矽谷銀行等，核心PCE年增率下降速度趨緩是很顯而易見的。
#經濟 #財經 #economics #inflation #通貨膨脹 #通脹 #通膨 #Econdon #Econmastodon
為何新聞和專家們認為美聯儲 #fed 只要通脹達到低於5%就能停止升息呢？
以美聯儲設定的2%長期平均值做出"標準正態分布"99%的區間上限。只要通脹率低於這個上限就代表美聯儲已控制通貨膨脹。
對我來說，檢測數據後就能知道他們的想法有點精神分裂。😂
因為結果是使用398個月數據測定出雙倍指數分布！
Double exponential(λ = 1.200987, μ = 2.098796)，並且
chi square test = 10.572864, p value = 0.102525。這還是原數據去測定的。無論情況怎樣直接套用正態分布就很不嚴謹。
至於86個月得到的殘差則是一般正態分布。兩者都不是正態分布，自然用所謂的4.576%的99%區間上限是有問題的。
#經濟 #財經 #economics #inflation #通貨膨脹 #通脹 #通膨 #Econdon #Econmastodon #AI經濟
The toot on https://mastodon.social/@aphoebusli/110009831595361990 had shown the UK inflation trend with time signals and trend signals, using #MathGPT for numerical modelling.
The latest line's equation from 2022/06~2023/01:
Y=0.083333+0.108333*X, R2=0.365462
Today, the plot covers the latest data of February, 2023.
The latest line's equation from 2022/06~2023/02:
Y=1.154444+0.095000*X, R2=0.380742
#inflation #UK #economics #finance #research #econmastodon @academicchatter @econometrics @economics @macroeconomics #AI經濟
布蘭特原油期貨價格(Yahoo! Finance, BZ=F)
到2023年3月16日的趨勢線Y=431.449286-1.421548*X, R2=0.832260
到2023年3月17日的趨勢線Y=435.543111-1.438167*X, R2=0.878616
到2023年3月20日的趨勢線Y=413.302000-1.348000*X, R2=0.887865
觀察：
斜率
從16日到17日下跌趨勢變快，從17日到30日則趨緩
R2
估計線的解釋力隨著增加新的數字，持續增加，目前趨勢仍維持下跌，還沒看到轉折
@economics #數學 #統計 #AI #人工智慧 #精準建模 #精準分析 #finance #財經 #原油 #油價 #brent #economics #mathematics #statistics #artificialintelligence #data #datascience #science #dataanalytics #dataanalysis #econmastodon #econdon #AI經濟
布蘭特原油期貨價格(Yahoo! Finance, BZ=F)
目的：建立短期精準趨勢
方法：lines conbimed method 多線段法
軟體：#MathGPT for numerical modelling
空心點：原數值
紅點：估計值
綠點：預測值
想解數字問題 必先建立精準數學模型
#數學 #統計 #AI #人工智慧 #精準建模 #精準分析 #finance #財經 #原油 #油價 #brent #economics #mathematics #statistics #artificialintelligence #data #datascience #science #dataanalytics #dataanalysis #crudeoil @economics #econmastodon
Estado de arte usando mapeo sistemático para el uso de registros con blockchain en temas económicos, monetarios y financieros
Macroeconomic Adverse Selection in Machine Learning Models of Credit Risk
Longevidad en España y sus implicaciones económicas en los sectores sociosanitarios
La incidencia del derecho de consumo en el crowdfunding financiero
Applying Artificial Intelligence in the Digital Transformation of Banking Sector
El Big Data como metodología de investigación social: Propuestas, renuncias y dilemas desde la sociología
The integration of environmental risks into the credit risk management profile of European banks
Competitividade e Produtividade numa abordagem sistémica aplicada à Academia
LECCIONES SURCOREANAS PARA UNA ESPAÑA EN REINDUSTRIALIZACIÓN
ALTERNATIVAS A LA EVOLUCIÓN DE LA OPERATIVA BANCARIA MAYORISTA EN EL EUROSISTEMA
El plan de recuperación: claves, papel de las CC. AA y algunos retos tras su puesta en marcha.
Panorama mundial de la producción científica sobre actos de habla: un análisis bibliométrico
¿ Movilidad rural sostenible? Más allá de las políticas de movilidad con mirada urbana
LA APORTACIÓN DE LAS MUJERES A LA ECONOMÍA EN ESPAÑA
✅US Oken's Law
#economics #econometrics #finance #AI #technology #thesis #writing #data #econmastodon #dataanalytics #MathGPT @econometrics
@macroeconomics @economics
Downlaod software:
https://github.com/meiyulee/MathGPT
✅Fed total assets trend
#economics #econometrics #finance #AI #technology #thesis #writing #data #econmastodon #dataanalytics #MathGPT @econometrics
@macroeconomics @economics #AI經濟
✅3 Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate trend
https://github.com/meiyulee/leetalk/blob/master/_posts/2023-03-17-DTB3.md
#economics #econometrics #finance #AI #technology #thesis #writing #data #econmastodon #dataanalytics #MathGPT @econometrics
@macroeconomics @economics #AI財經 #AI經濟
The trend outcomes of core CPI and core inflation are ziped at github: https://github.com/meiyulee/leetalk/blob/master/_files/coreCPI_coreinflation_update_202303.zip
#economics #econometrics #CPI #AI #technology #inflation #data #finance #stocks #investing #dataanalytics #trend #software #經濟 #財經 #通脹 #通貨膨脹 #econmastodon #econdon #AI經濟
Use #MathGPT for numerical modelling #software to analyze US core #inflation #trend when #AI determines the optimal explanatory power for each trend and the minimum data for each trend.
The latest trend info:
X = time code from 80 ~ 86
Y = core inflation
Estimated equation Y=20.901671-0.179498*X,
R2=0.853232
@academicchatter @economics @econometrics @macroeconomics #economics #econometrics #technology #data #finance #stocks #investing #經濟 #財經 #通脹 #通貨膨脹 #econmastodon #econdon #AI經濟
#MathGPT for numerical modelling software, applied on US core inflation trend from 2016/01 ~ 2023/02.
The latest trend info:
X = time code from 77 ~ 86
Y = core inflation
estimated equation
Y=10.506329-0.055449*X,
R2=0.236816
#economics #econometrics #CPI #AI #technology #inflation #data #finance #stocks #investing #dataanalytics #trend #software @academicchatter @economics @econometrics @macroeconomics #經濟 #財經 #通脹 #通貨膨脹 #econmastodon #econdon #AI經濟
#MathGPT for numerical modelling software, applied on US core CPI trend from 2016/01 ~ 2023/02.
The latest trend info:
X = time code from 64 ~ 86
Y = core CPI
estimated equation
Y=187.016923+1.362994*X,
R2=0.991480
#economics #econometrics #CPI #AI #technology #inflation #data #finance #stocks #investing #dataanalytics #trend #software @academicchatter @economics @econometrics @macroeconomics #經濟 #財經 #物價 #econmastodon #econdon #AI經濟
美國通貨膨脹率趨勢追蹤
已經更新到2023年2月資料
https://sites.google.com/view/usinflation/
通貨膨脹率的下降斜率趨緩，顯示美國物價黏性高，想要達到美國聯準會的長期2%目標仍有段路可走，不過所謂的2%是「均值」，代表有上下限，預計最快能達到的上限約4.576%，所以還差1.5%的路，看起來還是很有感的。
#inflation #economics #財經 #經濟 #MathGPT #AI #數學 #統計 #數據分析 #chatgpt #data #dataanalytics #trend #statistics #econometrics #technology #科技 #技術 #科學 #science #EconomicSlowdown @economics @academicchatter @board #econmastodon #econdon @macroeconomics #AI經濟
使用 #MathGPT for numerical modelling 軟件驗證奧肯法則(Okun's Law)。
取得美國實質GDP變動率和失業率變化的數據，得到一次性估計的直線模式和非直線模式結果。
兩模式顯示美國遭遇經濟衝擊時，失業率變化趨於極端將高估實質GDP變動率。過於樂觀的結果就是社會成本負擔提高。如果金融遊戲被看穿手腳，那經濟情勢就更有意思了。
blog article:
https://meiyulee.github.io/leetalk/2023/03/14/OkunLaw
#經濟 #財經 #觀點 #AI #科技 #技術 #technology #data #dataanalytics #economics #EconomicSlowdown #recession #econmastodon #econdon #AI經濟
@JoseMarichal @Mastodon I'm seeing people posting under #EconMastodon and #EconTwitter -- might be useful?
The benefits of switching electricity supplier became more salient in Ireland over the last year. Pre-energy crisis, a lack of switching was a likely driver of poor competition in the retail electricity market, which can put upward pressure on prices. Hopefully the rate of switching will continue to grow
#Energy #energymastodon #EconTwitter #econmastodon #Econodon #Irishtwitter #mastodaoine
🚨 #Job ctd.: I should mention that 4 other departments at #DIW are also offering #Postdoc positions in the fields of sustainability / socio-ecological transition with different foci: https://www.diw.de/de/diw_01.c.618535.de/karriere/stellenangebote.html
🚨 #Job: In the department Energy, Transportation, Environment at #DIW Berlin, we're looking for a Postdoc:
Topics: structural change and wider social-ecological impacts related to the #energytransition
Potential foci: workforce #skills and #employment, structural & technological change, life cycle aspects #lca of key transition technologies, limits to increasing the speed of the transition
3(+3) years, no teaching duty, TVöD 14 😃
Deadline *2 December* #econmastodon
@BMWK 7/ Bei einem Verbrauch von 1800 kWh wären in dem Beispiel die alte und die neue ("gebremste") Rechnung gleich.
Fun fact: theoretisch könnte ich meine Stromrechnung in dem Beispiel auch auf Null senken, wenn ich meinen Verbauch auf 720 kWh drücke, oder sogar noch Geld herausbekommen, wenn ich noch mehr einspare.
Das wird beim Strom allerdings praktisch kaum möglich sein.
Bei der #Gaspreisbremse gilt das alles übrigens analog.
Or it could be misunderstood nuance due to their priors
(usually New Keynesian) & they cannot make the conceptual leap
#econtwitter #econ #econmastodon #inflation #capacity
I think the best response is this
“MMT is saying we have this additional spending capacity
It is not infinite...it is limited by the risk of inflation.
It is lack of productive capacity, logistical capacity, supply chains capacity, labour skills available.
When we run out of this we will have inflation”
1/ Die Kommunikation zu #Gaspreisbremse und #Strompreisbremse ist immer noch stark verbesserungsfähig - nicht nur in den Medien, auch beim @BMWK selbst.
Auf der neuen BMWK-Homepage wird mehrfach suggeriert, der tatsächlich zu zahlende kWh-Preis von #Gas und #Strom würde für 80% der Vorjahres-Verbrauchsmenge gedeckelt, und erst darüber gelte der Marktpreis. Der neue, hohe Preis gilt aber immer, für JEDE verbrauchte kWh!
#econtwitter #econmastodon #energymastodon
https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/Artikel/Energie/strom-gaspreis-bremse.html
The #DIW Berlin Graduate Center is application portal is open! If you are interested in doing a PhD in Economics, brush up your CV!
There are no tuition fees, but a scholarship for the course phase, and afterwards you can work in one of the departments.
For example, in our department Energy, Transportation, Environment we do (you guess) energy and environmental and transportation economics, with a focus on (but not limited to) numerical modeling.
In some economic circles there are complaints about price controls saying they don’t work but price controls are everywhere right now & work correctly everyday.
Price controls are everywhere
Minimum wage
Bulk billing medicare
Reserve bank discount rate
Maximum penalty in a fine
Medication on the PBS
Concession Eligibility for PBS
Can you think of more?
Maybe
Minimum "award" wages
NDIS vouchers
HECS/HELP fees
#ozmmt #ausecon #econ #postkeynesian #mmt #econtwitter #econmastodon
I put on @radiohead's "In Rainbows" today, one of those rare perfect albums.
I remember the 2007 release, the era of illegal downloads. Fans could "pay what you want", including zero.
It was ahead of its time & a curious case for #economists. A fun Sunday 🧵
Hey #econmastodon, #statistics fedifriends,
Is there some clear guidance on when it is appropriate to correct statistical significance levels for multiple comparisons?
Recently a reviewer asked us to run a (Holm-)Bonferroni on the output of three separate (OLS) regression models ran over different variables of the same dataset. I am very confused as to why that would be appropriate. Any suggestion, authoritative paper, or pointer we can look at?
Currently reading "Economic forecasting with an agent-based model" https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104306.
#Forecasting #ABM #AgentBasedModelling #Economics #Econometrics #EconMastodon #EconTwitter
If you're an existing EG grantee, please amplify and identify yourself as such! #econmastodon #sociologymastodon
Help #econtwitter and #econmastodon colleagues. I've a vague memory of Enrico Barone in about 1909 publishing a paper that included (as an illustration of equilibrium notions) a bath, and can't find the image.
I need it for a lecture; there's a work around, but Barone + A.W. Phillips' MONIAC would serve better.
Good morning #econmastodon, #sociologymastodon, and other academics! So pleased to report that Equitable Growth's 2022 request for proposals on research at the nexus of equity and growth is now live! https://equitablegrowth.org/research-paper/2023-request-for-proposals/