#flooding
Groundwater Assessment Recharge Tool (GRAT) - A Tool To Save California’s Farming Future
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https://stories.theplotline.org/ca-water/ <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029292 <-- shared paper
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[part of groundwater sustainability planning (GSP)]
#managedaquiferrecharge #MAR #overextraction #groundwatermining
#GIS #spatial #mapping #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #groundwater #flooding #waterresources #watermanagement #CA #California #farming #agriculture #food #watersecurity #managedaquiferrecharge #MAR #overextraction #groundwatermining #GRAT #model #modeling #remotesensing #GroundwaterAssessmentRechargeTool #fields #water #hydrology #climate #climatechange #drought #droughts #climateextremes #extremeweather #hydrogeology #precipitation #infrastructure #economics #waterindustry #waterconservation #watercrisis #subsidence #groundwatersustainabilityplanning #GSP
🔁 𝙰𝚒 𝙽𝚎𝚠𝚜 𝚁𝚎𝚙𝚘𝚛𝚝 (@AiNewsRep)
Nearly 20 people have been killed, 70 injured + dozens more are missing in #Tanzania 🇹🇿 after bad weather caused powerful flash #flooding in the country
🐦🔗 https://twitter.com/AiNewsRep/status/1731383223127556478
🕐 03/12 19:41
Will the world continue to prioritise profits over the environment? | The Stream
Another new blog post - gasp!
NLDL 2024: My rainfall radar paper is out!
https://starbeamrainbowlabs.com/blog/article.php?article=posts%2F538-nldl2024-paper-out.html
#Pakistan | An #architect has found a way to build flood-proof homes.. “She is a pioneer in designing #architecture for #disaster relief.” Yasmeen Lari is the name of the architect.
Great story, do have a look.. GIFT article... https://wapo.st/41m4ci5
#bamboo #flooding #floods #YasmeenLari #housing #homes #community #houses #village
Summary: There may be fewer atmospheric rivers because of climate change, but the ones that occur will be extreme.
NASA: #ClimateChange may lead to bigger #AtmosphericRivers
By Esprit Smith,
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory
May 24, 2018
"A new NASA-led study shows that #ClimateChange is likely to intensify #ExtremeWeather events known as atmospheric rivers across most of the globe by the end of this century, while slightly reducing their number.
"The new study projects atmospheric rivers will be significantly longer and wider than the ones we observe today, leading to more frequent atmospheric river conditions in affected areas.
"The results project that in a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, there will be about 10 percent fewer atmospheric rivers globally by the end of the 21st century,' said the study's lead author, Duane Waliser, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. 'However, because the findings project that the atmospheric rivers will be, on average, about 25 percent wider and longer, the global frequency of atmospheric river conditions -- like #HeavyRain and #StrongWinds -- will actually increase by about 50 percent.'
"The results also show that the frequency of the most intense atmospheric river storms is projected to nearly double.
"Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow jets of air that carry huge amounts of water vapor from the tropics to Earth's continents and polar regions. These 'rivers in the sky' typically range from 250 to 375 miles (400 to 600 kilometers) wide and carry as much water -- in the form of water vapor -- as about 25 Mississippi Rivers. When an atmospheric river makes landfall, particularly against mountainous terrain (such as the Sierra Nevada and the Andes), it releases much of that water vapor in the form of rain or snow.
"These storm systems are common -- on average, there are about 11 present on Earth at any time. In many areas of the globe, they bring much-needed precipitation and are an important contribution to annual freshwater supplies. However, stronger atmospheric rivers -- especially those that stall at landfall or that produce rain on top of snowpack -- can cause disastrous #flooding.
"Atmospheric rivers show up on satellite imagery, including in data from a series of actual atmospheric river storms that drenched the U.S. West Coast and caused severe flooding in early 2017."
Read more: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2740/climate-change-may-lead-to-bigger-atmospheric-rivers/
#Weather #Climate #GlobalWarming #AtmosphericRiver #ExtremeWeather #ExtremeAtmosphericRivers
#AtmosphericRiver to unleash month’s worth of #rain in #PacificNorthwest
A stretch of stormy weather is underway across the Northwest that could trigger #avalanches, widespread travel disruptions and #flooding #rainfall through the first week of December.
By Elizabeth Danco, #Accuweather meteorologist
December 1, 2023
"It will be a wet and snowy start to December across the Northwest as the region remains the focal point for a series of storms featuring a month's worth of rain and feet of mountain snow.
"A flow of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, known as an atmospheric river, will send a nearly continuous barrage of storms into the Northwest into the first week of December, increasing the risk of flooding in the lower elevations while snow could clog mountain passes, leading to travel disruptions throughout the region.
"The train of storms will continue to spread rain across western Oregon and Washington into northwestern California through much of the new week. Cities across the region including Portland and Eugene, Oregon, and Seattle can record multiple inches of rain through Tuesday. Rainfall totals will be the highest along the coast and in the coastal mountain ranges where upwards of a foot of rain can occur in some areas. "
#Weather #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ExtremeWeather
A #Pakistani #architect is using #bamboo to #sustainably build #homes in villages destroyed by #flooding.
#GiftLink #giftarticle #sustainability #architecture #globalwarming #environment
#Climatechange is messing with #Texas
#Texas homeowner #insurance rates have increased 22% on average so far in 2023, twice the national rate. More billion-dollar disasters have occurred in #Texas this year than any other year
“The #insurance industry is the canary in the coal mine for the #climatecrisis we’re facing”
“the cost of insurance will make the most at-risk homes effectively uninsurable” https://www.texastribune.org/2023/11/30/texas-homeowner-insurance-climate-change-costs/ #hurricanes #flooding #thunderstorms #tornadoes #extremeweather
Winter Storm preparedness video from the Montecito Fire Department. #Montecito #SantaBarbara #Winter #DisasterPreparedness #rain #flooding #CAwx https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPSn1GlAqTY
Analysis of flooding in Kenya from UNOSAT. #ExtremeWeather #Kenya #flooding https://unosat.org/products/3761
Unusual winter storms in Gujarat, India have led to 20+ deaths from lightning strikes, plus damages from wind and flooding.
"While rainfall is generally seen as beneficial, its timing and severity in this case have led to widespread hardship." Expect to hear this refrain more often.
#ClimateChange #ClimateDiary #ClimateCrisis #environment #flooding #lightning
#ElNiño - worsened #flooding has #Somalia in a state of emergency. Residents of one town are desperate
by OMAR FARUK
November 23, 2023
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — "First, some families fled drought and violence. Now they say they have nowhere to hide from intense flooding as rainfall exacerbated by the weather phenomenon El Niño pummels large parts of Somalia.
"Floods have killed at least 96 people, the country’s Council of Ministers said Thursday.
"Among the worst hit towns is the densely populated Beledweyne, where the Shabelle River has burst its banks, destroyed many homes and caused thousands to flee to higher ground near the border with Ethiopia.
"Hakima Mohamud Hareed, a mother of four children including one who is disabled, said that her family constantly looks for shelter."
https://apnews.com/article/somalia-flooding-beledweyne-el-nino-2f624d796152c1f56206de688318d34f
What Is Climate Change? A Really Simple Guide
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24021772 <-- shared media article
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #tutorial #learning #climatechange #emissions #affects #effects #extremeweather #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #coast #coastal #climate #humanimpacts #warming #globalwarming #population #greenhousegasemissions #fossilfuels #CO2 #atmosphere #industrialrevolution #temperature #environment #heatwaves #droughts #floods #flooding #death #oceancurrents #watersecurity #watersupply #foodsecurity #economicimpact #damage #economic #model #modeling #biodiversity #ecosystems #environment
‘A Beautiful Place That Has A Dragon’ - Where Hurricane Risk Meets Booming Growth
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/19/upshot/carolina-hurricanes.html <-- shared media article
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“Hurricanes have always struck the shores of the United States.
But in recent decades, the combination of climate change and a growing coastal population has made them far more damaging — particularly in one corner of the Atlantic coast…"
#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #modeling #risk #hazard #Carolinas #northcarolina #usa #southcarolina #hurricanes #damage #climatechange #extremeweather #frequency #strength #stormsurge #coastal #population #demographics #atlanticcoast #sealevel #sealevelrise #SLR #flooding #flood #coastalflooding #hydrology #water #populationgrowth #harmsway #growth #economicimpact #cost
Absolutely intense flooding in Dominican Republic yesterday. Don't think I've seen huge chunks of asphalt get torn up & flipped by a flood like that before.
It's getting hard to keep track of the horrific #ClimateEmergency impacts. #Flooding
cc: @ai6yr
#Merritt trapped in 'political pass-the-buck' 2 years after horrific #flooding
To protect homes from future #floods, the city wants to buy out 32 properties. But #BCgovernment doesn't have a process for managed retreat.
2 years after an #atmospheric river sent a torrent of rainwater & melted snow through parts of the city, #FloodMitigation work has reached an impasse, with the city waiting on senior levels of government for funding.
Neighbourhoods submerged following flash floods in the Horn of Africa
#AfricaNews #HornofAfrica #Kenya #Somalia #Ethiopia #flooding #environment
"Somalia is currently experiencing what the United Nations has termed a “once-in-a-century” #flooding event, following a historic drought. This natural #disaster has uprooted hundreds of thousands of people not only in Somalia but also in neighboring East African countries.
As of November 14, 2023, heavy rains and floods have impacted over 1.24 million people and displaced over 456 800 in Somalia. At least 32 fatalities have been reported, with the majority of those affected residing in the South West State."
#climate #collapse
https://watchers.news/2023/11/15/once-in-a-century-flood-disaster-strikes-somalia-over-450-000-displaced-1-2-million-affected-and-32-fatalities-reported/
Message from ReadySBC #SantaBarbara about incoming rain and wind. #rainfall #flooding #CAwx
@spcmdc_bot "SUMMARY...Slow moving cells will continue a threat for locally extreme rainfall rates and significant to potentially
life-threatening flash flooding across portions of the
east-central FL Peninsula. Rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr along with
highly localized rates in excess of 4 in/hr are expected to
continue through 08Z." #FLwx #rain #flooding
RT by @CopernicusEU: Over the past few days, the north of #France🇫🇷 has been affected by a severe #flooding episode
🔽#Dataviz produced using our Global Flood Monitoring🌊 tool showing the flooded areas detected south of #Calais on 12 November at 6:07 UTC
More about #GFM👇
http://e.copernicus.eu/CEMS_GFM
🐦🔗: https://nitter.cz/CopernicusEMS/status/1725183565313249705#m
[2023-11-16 16:06 UTC]
GraphCast - AI Model For Faster And More Accurate Global Weather Forecasting [Google]
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https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/ <-- shared technical article
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https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi2336 <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #GraphCast #Google #GoogleDeepMind #weather #weatherforecast #weatherforecasting #extremeweather #model #modeling #numericmodeling #risk #hazard #global #climatechange #AI #artificalintelligence #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #cyclones #hurricanes #atmosphericriver #flood #floodrisk #flooding #precipitation #rainfall #heatwave #extremeheat #extremetemperatures #weatherprediction #opensource #humanimpacts #security
@Google @GoogleDeepMind
Ryan Hall Y’all Extra - These two storms are going to cause problems…
#FLwx #Flooding #NewEngland #MEwx
YouTube link: https://youtu.be/pLHEzV0cJ3s?si=_lRPJ89CyckgyLW0
Reading Time: 3 minutes
Yesterday I went for a run, despite the rain being heavy. I wore a proper rain coat and waterproof trousers. I should have also worn waterproof shoes. I didn’t so I ended up soaked once again. What made this run special is that the rain was heavy from the start.
The rain was so heavy that water running from fields and hills was creating deep rivers that ran downhill along roads, filled with muddy water. Normal people would postpone their run for the following day, especially since we knew yesterday that the weather would be good for several days to come.
I got into the habit of walking and running in all weathers so the weather doesn’t affect whether I will go out or not. If it’s raining dog walkers and normal people are usually not out, so the paths we walk and run are free for us to enjoy.
I ran uphill for the first part and it felt hard. It always feel hard to run uphill but there isn’t much choice. If I run downhill I run along the roads where drivers have no respect for pedestrians. I walk and run uphill because that’s where I feel that the roads are safer from cars.
In this day and age everyone is trying to make towns and cities pedestrian friendly but when I lived in London, when I walked in Paris, London, Florence, Geneva and plenty of other cities I never felt bothered by cars. It’s in between villages and towns that cars behave cruelly towards pedestrians and cyclists. To me roads should be dedicated to cycling, running and walking, and there should be a requirement for dogs to be on leads.
I run up the hill because I know that where I am exposed to traffic the roads are wide and I have space to move away from the sadistic drivers speeding by pedestrians. I also walk along those roads because they’re wide enough for cars to avoid us, when no other cars are coming the other way. Where agricultural roads are used by normal cars, where they are wide enough for a car but not two, drivers drive too fast.
If I was driving I would slow down to walking speed as I pass pedestrians and cyclists. They don’t. They almost never slow down.
Yesterday, in the heavy rain I could have gone downhill and stayed dry. I didn’t. Every single time I walk along those roads I yell abuse at cars being driven too fast, too close to me. Words about wanting people to walk rather than drive are empty when you make it impossible to walk between villages and towns safely.
That’s why I went uphill. That’s why I went to the farm roads that flood when it rains. The fields get saturated in water and that water runs downhill, onto the road, and when it hits the road it runs down the road. Yesterday it rained so heavily, for so long, after several days that the roads were now deep rivers. The rivers were now ankle deep. I put my foot down, and the top of my shoes was underwater for a few steps.
I went to the side, I went to avoid the deep water, but I couldn’t avoid it all the time, so I ran through the river running down the road. My shoes and my socks got wet, and it wicked upwards, onto my trousers, up to my t-shirt. I was soaked from the shoes upwards.
I didn’t feel cold. I wasn’t bothered. It’s only rain and muddy water. I ran for 37 minutes in this rain, before I walked the rest of the way home. When I got home I put my shoes on an empty cardboard box, and hung the socks on the same box, to dry. If the box gets wet I don’t mind. It will be recycled anyway. So will the shoes I used.
A few months ago, or last year I frequently said that I was impatient for rainy weather, to have a rest day. Recently I have found that I will go out in all weather, whether we’re in a heat wave heavy rain or other. The time when I really would think twice about going out is on a cold and windy day. I find that rain is fine. It’s the cold wind that is unpleasant.
In circumstances like yesterday’s there are two choices. The first is to wear quick drying shoes, like I did, or to wear hiking boots, that reach above the ankles. The drawback to such shoes is that they are not good for running. Quick drying shoes, in yesterday’s situation were the best option. Feet get wet but we just change socks when we get home.
https://www.main-vision.com/richard/blog/running-through-ankle-deep-water/
"The Sinú River in Colombia has provided food, water, and transportation to local people for thousands of years. In recent decades, wealthy landowners used violent force to push through construction of a dam that has caused disastrous flooding in the region."
Kurt Hollander: https://jacobin.com/2023/11/sinu-river-urra-dam-pollution-cattle-ranching-environment-destruction-conflict
Who would have thought..
With the floods caused by heavy rains also come thunder storms. 😜
Where are you gonna hide from the strike if you have to live in a flood ?
"Lightning sheds offer safety to haor people in Bangladesh"
by Mosabber Hossain for Next Blue [they say it's a 6 min reads]
Yorkshire farmers explain why ongoing issues with the Yorkshire & Humber Drainage Board leaves Ryedale at risk of flooding
#Flooding #Yorkshire #Ryedale
https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/region/ryedale-farmers-rally-against-unfair-drainage-board-practices/
(This is a thread; please see previous two posts.)
I'm a believer in #hazardmitigation, but this example is a fortunate one. A plan for the space emerged over time, along with investment from said college. It shows how #riskreduction on its own is admirable, but it needs to be coupled with #strategicplanning for its potential to be unlocked.
I walked the dogs round the block and the flooding is so bad. So awful.
“Regardless of the size of a #city, well planned #urban land patterns can reduce population exposures to weather extremes. In other words, #cities large and small can reduce their risks caused by weather extremes by better arranging their land developments”
“The key is to start adjusting how we think about #development now” https://phys.org/news/2023-11-cities-21st-century-weather.html #extremeweather #climatechange #heatwaves #flooding #resilency #sustainability #design #urbanplanning #landuse
What exactly are sponge cities? 🤔💭🧽
Sponge cities are #urban areas designed to combat extreme #flooding by imitating the natural water cycle through green #infrastructure like parks, wetlands, rain gardens, bioswales, and green roofs. These #nature-based designs aim to slow water, enhance ground absorption, and provide time for evaporation and transpiration. 🌆🌿💧
👉 Learn more: https://thekidshouldseethis.com/post/sponge-cities-flood-resistant-nature-based-urban-designs-video
#tksst #china #climate #conservation #ecology #history #science #trees #weather
“Water museum Arnhem closed because of flooding”
But of course…
Worst flooding in decades kills dozens in East Africa | AJ #Shorts
"Somalis are struggling to cope with never-before-seen #flooding that has killed dozens of people and forced hundreds of thousands to abandon their homes, in the wake of #ExtremeRainfall that has engulfed much of #EastAfrica.
The impact of the flooding is much worse because the soil is so damaged from an unprecedented recent #drought.
#ClimateChange is causing more intense and more frequent #ExtremeWeather events, with the #HornOfAfrica especially vulnerable."
As Price Of #OliveOil Soars, Chainsaw-Wielding Thieves Target Mediterranean's Century-Old #OliveTrees
By Associated Press, November 8, 2023
"In an olive grove on the outskirts of #Athens, grower Konstantinos Markou pushes aside the shoots of new growth to reveal the stump of a tree — a roughly 150-year-old specimen, he said, that was among 15 cut down on his neighbor's land by thieves eager to turn it into money.
"Surging olive oil prices, driven in part by two years of #drought in #Spain, has meant opportunity for criminals across the Mediterranean. Warehouse break-ins, dilution of premium oil with inferior product, and falsification of shipping data are on the rise in #olive-growing heartlands of #Greece, #Spain and #Italy. And perhaps worst of all: Gangs using chainsaws to steal heavily laden branches and even entire trees from unguarded groves.
"'The olive robbers can sometimes produce more oil than the owners themselves – seriously,' Markou said, before heading off to patrol his own grove at nightfall.
"The crimes mean fewer olives for growers already contending with high production costs and #ClimateChange that has brought #WarmerWinters, major #flooding and more intense #ForestFires. In Italy’s southern #Puglia region, growers are pleading with police to form an agriculture division. Greek farmers want to bring back a rural police division that was phased out in 2010. In Spain, a company has developed tracking devices that look like olives to try and catch thieves."
Read more:
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2023-11-08-olive-oil-prices-trees-thieves-chainsaws
"Sponge park" is a bit more descriptive than "rain garden," I think I will be stealing that term.
#GreenBuilding #GreenArchitecture #CityPlanning #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #flooding
https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/sponge-cities-montreal-canada-china-1.7013728
3 cities face a #climate dilemma: to build or not to build homes in risky places.
"NPR visited three places that are grappling with the question of how to stop building homes in harm's way — with varying degrees of success. Whether it's #flooding, #wildfires or #drought that threatens a community, similar conversations are now playing out across the #UnitedStates."
New Yorker: Can Seawalls Save Us From Rising Seas and Surging Storms? https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/can-seawalls-save-us #NewYorker #News/AnnalsofaWarmingPlanet #ClimateChange #Sealevel #Flooding
#ClimateDiary “Climate Change is other people’s pictures and then it happens to you”.
Yesterday we cycled in torrential rain (to my son’s martial arts), then drove to pick him up. At first i avoided the water; then had to drive through a few times; by the evening, when we drove to visit friends, water everywhere felt almost “normal”; quickly starting to develop skills judging whether you could drive through; but minor, annoying electric damage to car #Eastbourne #Flooding #Ciaran
Video from Italy and Storm Ciaran. #italy #StormCiaran #Ciaran #flooding #rain https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ay2fchIDjYM
Closed due to flooding
Fitzgerald Park in Cork was flooded on October 21st last. The playground was completely off limits as water rolled off from the surrounding landscape. The pond had burst its banks and flooded the surrounding path. Seagulls were the only ones enjoying the scene.
https://inphotos.org/2023/11/03/closed-due-to-flooding/
#photo #photography #gallery #Cork #Ireland #FitzgeraldPark #flooding
#StormCiaran Slams into #Europe with #Hurricane-Force #Winds & #Flooding #Rains, #Tornado #Warnings in #UK, 1.2 Million without #Power in #France, 1 Death Reported, #Spain on #Alert: #BorrascaCiaran #Weather https://bit.ly/3MqKYRS
Brits will be surprised to hear that #NewZealand & many nations have a well developed gov. #EmergencyPreparedness dept. that is ready for any disaster: #COVID #Flooding , Power loss etc. which involve local communities, workplaces & schools
I still can't believe the UK has almost no contingency planning, with any remaining struggling from years of #austerity
We knew in 2018 that the UK was not ready for a major infectious outbreak, but the #Tories refused to act.
Flooding alert for London Boroughs on the Ravensbourne area
#Lewisham #Bromley #Greenwich #Croydon
#Flooding #London
https://check-for-flooding.service.gov.uk/target-area/064WAF43Ravnsbrn
It has been raining relentlessly for the past day in London, and when it floods, it mixes with our dying rivers, so more land is poisoned.
Not like anybody in Government really want's to deal with this, they'd rather lock up the people demanding more action. Just a tad frustrating, no? 🤷♂️
Stay safe out there!
#Hastings #Flooding
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hastings-meadow-shopping-centre-flooding-b2437663.html
Today’s #flooding at the #TopOfTheField hoping the house stays dry. #Fife #Scotland
#ViewFromTheGate
Rain, persistent and heavy. More #flooding. And today a hard service for a person who died too young. Give your loved ones a hug.
Dearborn is taking aggressive new measures to avoid flooding. Is it enough?
Fitzgerald Park in Cork City is a bit flooded. The children’s play area is totally flooded, as it’s lower than the surrounding ground, and the pond is overflowing onto the surrounding path.
They were waiting for the River Lee to overflow about an hour later.
https://inphotos.org/2023/10/21/flooding-in-fitzgerald-park/
#Cork #Ireland #Photo #Photography #FitzgeraldPark #Flooding
@ScotHomestead you are right to question ‘selfish’ #
It was an immediate response to hearing Vice President of NFUS in a #BBC #Scotland interview about the #flooding. He was advocating dredging rivers, which are ‘to shallow’. It’s such a dangerous fallacy, which any hydrologist will tell you increases the risk of flooding to vulnerable downstream communities. Influential #farmers trying to protect their highly subsidised businesses at expense of neighbours are indeed selfish …at best unthinking
2/2
To reduce flooding we should be concentrating all our efforts on slowing the flow,. Watersheds need restoration of the sponge effect of natural scrub vegetation & rivers need to reclaim floodplains. Floodplains should return to their natural condition …wet woodland. Low quality farm land in floodplains should be regarded as sacrificial & even in some cases returned to woodland & wetlands. Beavers can help with this at no cost.
Difficulty of my morning ride had increased 😬The fields are becoming lakes
At least it’s pretty
#flooding #photography #sunrise
Today’s #CountryDiary in the Guardian by Amanda Thomson is also a wonderful #ClimateDiary entry, reflecting on how both #Scotland and #Ghana are currently experiencing #Flooding, and on whose atories we hear:
“Being here is making me think about the perspectives we hold, and how we often can’t quite imagine where we are not.”
1/2
Storm Babet caused dangerous floods as the 'dry side' of Scotland isn't used to such torrential rain.
Interesting post on the hydrology and prediction of flooding.
#flooding #hydrology #StormBabet https://theconversation.com/storm-babet-caused-dangerous-floods-as-the-dry-side-of-scotland-isnt-used-to-such-torrential-rain-216103
"Parts of eastern #Scotland experienced severe #flooding on Friday after #StormBabet brought heavy rainfall and winds of more than 70 mph (113 km/h) which overwhelmed defences and left thousands of homes without power.
Britain's national weather forecaster, the Met Office, issued its first red warning for rain since February 2020, predicting some locations would see as much as 250 millimetres (9.84 inches)."
Like much of northern Europe we have been battening down the hatches, almost literally, against storm Babet in Denmark this week. DMI have issued a rare red weather warning for southern Denmark, including the area I often go kayaking in.
Weather warning issued by DMI 20th October 2023 There are three levels, blue signifies the lowest, yellow is medium and the highest is red, which is rather rarely issued. The boxed text applies to the red zome around southern Denmark and states it relates to a water level of between 1.4 and 1.8m above the usual.From a purely academic viewpoint, it’s actually quite an interesting event, so beyond the hyperbolic accounts of the TV weather presenters forced to stand outside with umbrellas, I thought it was worth a quick post as it also tells us something about compound events, that make storms so deadly, but also about how we have to think about adaptation to sea level rise.
I should probably start by saying that this storm is not caused by climate change, though of course in a warming atmosphere, it is likely to have been intensified by it, and the higher the sea level rises on average, the more destructive a storm surge becomes, and the more frequent the return period!
Neither are storm surges unknown in Denmark -there is a whole interesting history to be written there, not least because the great storm of 1872 brought a huge storm surge to eastern Denmark and probably led directly to the founding of my employer, the Danish Meterological Institute. My brilliant DMI colleague Martin Stendel persuasively argues that the current storm surge event is very similar to the 1872 event in fact, suggesting that maybe we have learnt something in the last 150 years…
Stormflod 1872Xylografi, der viser oversømmelsens hærger på det sydlige Lolland
År: 1872 FOTO:Illustreret Tidende
However, back to today: the peak water is expected tonight, and the reason why storm surges affect southern and eastern Denmark differently to western Denmark is pretty clear in the prognosis shown below for water height (top produced by my brilliant colleagues in the storm surge forecasting section naturally) and winds (bottom, produced by my other brilliant colleagues in numerical weather prediction):
Forecast water level for 1am 21st October 2023 note that the blue colours on the west show water below average height and the pink colours in the south and east show sea level at above average height. Forecast wind speeds and directions indicated by the arrows for 1am, Saturday 21st October 2023Basically, the strong westerly winds associated with the storm pushed a large amount of water from the North Sea through the Kattegat and past the Danish islands into the Baltic Sea over the last few days. Imagine the Baltic is a bath tub, if you push the water one way it will then flow back again when you stop pushing. Which is exactly what it is now doing, but now, it is also pushed by strong winds from the east as shown in the forecast shown above. These water is being driven even higher against the coasts of the southern and eastern danish islands.
The great belt (Storebælt) between the island of Sjælland (Zealand) and Fyn (Funen) is a key gateway for this water to flow away, but the islands of Lolland, Falster and Langeland are right in the path of this water movement, explaining why Lolland has the longest dyke in Denmark (63km, naturally it’s also a cycle path and as an aside I highly recommend spending a summer week exploring the danish southern islands by bicycle or sea kayak, they’re lovely.). It’s right in the front line when this kind of weather pattern occurs.
These kind of storm surges are sometimes known as silent storm surges by my colleagues in the forecasting department because they often occur after the full fury of the storm has passed. I wrote about one tangentially in 2017. This time, adding to the chaos, are those gale force easterly winds, forecast to be 20 – 23 m/s, or gale force 9 on the Beaufort Scale if you prefer old money, which will certainly bring big waves that are even more problematic to deal with that a slowly rising sea, AND torrential rain. So while the charts on dmi.dk which allow us to follow the rising seas (see below for a screengrab of a tide gauge in an area I know fairly well from the sea side), water companies, coastal defences and municipalities also need to prepare for large amounts of rain, that rivers and streams will struggle to evacuate.
Water height forecast for Køge a town in Eastern Sjælland not far from Copenhagen. The yellow line indicates the 20 year return period for this height. Blue line shows measurements and dashed black lines show the forecast from the DMI ocean model. You can find more observations here.In Køge the local utilities company is asking people to avoid running washing machines, dishwashers and to avoid flushing toilets over night where possible to avoid overwhelming sewage works when the storm and the rain is at the maximum.
This brings me to the main lessons that I think we can learn from this weather (perhaps super-charged by climate) event.
Firstly, it’s the value of preparedness, and learning from past events. There will certainly be damage from this event, thanks to previous events, we have a system of dykes and other defence measures in place to minimse that damage and we know where the biggest impacts are likely to be.
A temporary dike deployed against a storm surge in Roskilde fjordSecondly, the miracle, or quiet revolution if you will, of weather and storm forecasting means we can prepare for these events days before they happen, allowing the deployment of temporary barrages, evacuations and the stopping of electricity and other services before they become a problem.
This is even more important for the 3rd lesson, that weather emergencies rarely happen alone – it’s the compound nature of these events that makes them challenging – not just rising seas but also winds and heavy rain. And local conditions matter – water levels in western Denmark are frequently higher, the region is much more tidally influenced than the eastern Danish waters. This is basically another way of saying that risk is about hazard and vulnerability.
Finally, there are the behavioural measures that mean people can mitigate the worst impacts by changing how they behave when disaster strikes. Of course, this stuff doesn’t happen by itself. It requires the slightly dull but worthy services to be in place, for different agencies to communicate with each other and for a bit of financial head room so far-sighted agencies can invest in measures “just in case”. We are fortunate indeed that municipalities have a legal obligation to prepare for climate change and that local utilities are mostly locally owned on a cooporative like basis – rather than having to be profit-making enterprises for large shareholders..
This piece is already too long, but there is one more aspect to consider. The harbour at Hesnæe Havn has just recorded a 100 year event, that is a storm surge like this would be expected to occur once ever hundred years, in this case the water is now 188cm. The previous record of 170cm was set in 2017. We need to prepare for rising seas and the economic costs they will bring. The sea will slowly eat away at Denmark’s coasts, but the frequency of storm surges is going to change – 20cm of sea level rise can turn a 100 year return event into a 20 year return event and a 20 year return event into an ever year event.
Screenshot of the observations of sea level from HesnæsWe need to start having the conversation NOW about how we’re going to handle that disruption to our coastlines and towns.
https://sternaparadisaea.net/2023/10/20/the-storm-is-coming-in/
#climateChange #Denmark #DMI #flooding #Science #stormSurge #weather
🔁 Derbyshire Dales DC (@derbyshiredales)
#Flooding in #Baslow reveals the seriousness of today's event.
http://www.derbyshiredales.gov.uk/flooding
🐦🔗 https://twitter.com/derbyshiredales/status/1715350389443215754
🕐 20/10 13:52
#StormBabet: #Angus is in the middle of a very serious emergency.
It has been a very challenging night. Brechin defences were breached around 4am this morning. River levels are around 4.4m above normal levels.
This is completely unprecedented and at these heights, gauges have become unreliable.
Severe weather (weather watch) | Angus Council
100 — 160 mm rainfall across Tayside and Angus over the last 24 hours, as much rain as falls in these areas during a wet October…
There’s more to come overnight into tomorrow and the run off from hills taking time to reach habitations flooding will only get worse before it gets better.
Keep your peepers on the Met Office weather warning website. If youre under a Red Warning stay off the roads.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings
#StormBabet: One dead, thousands without power and hundreds evacuated
"The U.K.'s weather forecaster, the Met Office, issued a rare red alert — the highest level of weather warning — for parts of Scotland, predicting “exceptional #rainfall” Thursday and Friday that is expected to cause extensive #flooding and “danger to life from fast-flowing or deep floodwater.”"
#StormBabet to bring high waters from Ireland to Sweden.
🚨AMBER WEATHER WARNING FOR SCOTLAND EXTENDED WEST🚨
Amber rain warning extended further west into Tayside — 2 months rain expected in a very short period of time.
#StaySafe #Flooding #StayAtHome
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings
Gosh. It’s almost as if all the science and all the warnings that have flowed from it for the past 50+ years were spot on.
Who’d have thunk?
Is this practical?
As sea level rise, how much can geoengineering protect lowland cities.
Let along whole countries that exist at sea level.
And at what cost?
#NewYorkCity ’s flood: A wet double whammy
>#climatechange is worsening #floods in two important ways. It is exacerbating #rainfall, which can quickly lead to flash #flooding due to the city’s lack of porous surfaces. It’s also slowly raising the level of the #ocean, which frequently intrudes onto the city’s surfaces during storms and high tide, a phenomenon known as coastal flooding.
>.. scientists who study coastal flooding actually consider [the] flood to be “mild.”
The Forth at Stirling just now. Never seen it this bad in five years of living here. Really hope this is the worst of it.
@felicitymartin I Heard Blairgowrie is now cut off on all roads. It’s a #ClimateCrisis not #Local #Flooding.
4/4 When Rishi Sunak talks about #FoodSecurity being in conflict with solar panels he is deliberately trying to conflate the problems we face. To carefully choose locations for solar panels can also be a good part of a mixed agrarian system. The #FoodShortages are almost entirely down to #Brexit which he does not want to mention. When land like ours holds water like this that is a #GoodThing having #SolarPanels on a drier part of the site helps both food security and #Emissions #Flooding
View from the gate: rain. Seriously raining Scotland is projected to receive 1 months average rainfall between Friday night and Sunday night this weekend. The flooding in our field holds water which would flood housing downstream so we want to let it drain naturally. #ClimateDiary #rain #flooding #SlowTheFlow 1/4
Major Flooding in Scotland ” not a normal Autumn weekend”
#flooding
UPDATE from SEPA Vincent Fitzsimons, Flood Duty Manager for the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), said: “Scotland is experiencing a major rainfall event that is bringing prolonged, heavy rain throughout the day and well into Sunday. I want to be very clear that this is not a normal Autumn weekend for Scotland. We’re expecting extensive river and surface water flooding in affected areas.
https://theorkneynews.scot/2023/10/07/major-flooding-in-scotland-not-a-normal-autumn-weekend/
At least 26 people were killed in the tiny state of Sikkim, and another 142 are missing in India (gift link) after glacial outflow burst #India #disaster #flooding #glacier #climate https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/06/world/asia/india-flood-sikkim-climate-change.html?unlocked_article_code=mmm3z6_3x9sTjaLSHRk-hiI0ONQfeaa_wZabfOEZN_ZimOHL5KzPxZsmOZ_PRt_fOquma4VAt5WGOWgB-eBAG56GhVhngsG4TUU_8xzUlP2MXBG0YeLWyso4SvLKaQH5-yhtO8gJ2o5RNE0cspWTXy5uW1wank4Uk3BcAg23RMbRJBwdY7W9DaoAtRKInB6PqgWSwPn9ey9i-D0tnL2wbevwQZpJ_rgnTN8ozwXPneDWGEEqLXMqE5VCen3d8GGbsB8sNI6-4FuvYELkQ1YT_LTRQrZLXVWyY19TvzVrWnNVq5mWn3_M15oxWUtY-bY_0dh5nSFXzEX48DV1frgs4yMCwnfsFbVlplCqywUP&smid=url-share
In September 2023, extreme rains struck South Africa’s Western Cape province, #flooding villages and leaving a trail of #destruction. The catastrophic devastation is just one recent example in a string of extreme #weather events that are growing more common around the world.
#EarthScience #ClimateChange #sflorg
https://www.sflorg.com/2023/10/es10062301.html